NOTE: US Consults has no specific “sweet spot” – whether within the private sector or public sector.  That said, because of our founder’s background, manufacturing is our “soft spot” – one near and dear to our hearts.

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PROLOGUE

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The story of Man is quite distinct from the stories of men.  The former is based in fact; the latter are acknowledged at best as embellishments based in a seed of truth and at worst as outright lies.  Myths, of course, are a subset of the stories of men.  There are famous myths from the past - such as that of Odysseus as told by Homer. 

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As much as the intent was to entertain, the purpose of the myth was to reinforce or instill values - much as one of the purposes of the stories from the Bible.  In these stories recounting cause and effect (another Greek, Aristotle), the "cause" is based in a seed of truth - and is the virtue being reinforced in the myth.

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Propaganda can be construed as myth because it shares one of the purposes of myths: to reinforce or instill values.  There is a difference, however.  A myth has a seed based in a truth.  Propaganda is simply based in a lie.  There is a difference between Goebbels and Homer, Stalin and Virgil.  So propaganda is not a myth.  It is the use of a lie to shape the values and actions of men.  In the stories told of cause and effect, the cause is a lie.

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It is arguable that if one casts a net far enough, some seed of truth can be ensnared by propaganda - and that facts or truths can be found much as loose glitter on a greeting card.  For example, a group of citizens could have a higher average net wealth than the rest of the citizenry.  That could be a truth.  Propaganda then is constructed around that incidental truth - such as the cause of the accumulation of wealth is that the group has been using unlawful means or predatory practices.  In other words: the wealth was the result of cheating and stealing from others.  Yet the reality is that the value system of that wealthy group of citizens consists of a strong work ethic combined with a sense of responsibility for the generations to come - resulting in the accumulation of wealth rather than the squandering of income on petty personal pleasures.  The cause is something completely different from that presented by the propaganda.

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But the propaganda is then used to justify stealing from the group that has done nothing wrong.  This is a pattern that has been repeated and repeated again and again throughout history.

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There are those who could argue that the Manufacturing Myth is actually not a myth at all - it is propaganda.  After all, it is not based in truth and history has demonstrated that there is no factual basis to the Manufacturing Myth.  The past has completely contradicted its premise.  Additionally, those perpetrating the Manufacturing Myth are working their own agenda, contrary to the interests of others and at the expense of others - a classic attribute of propaganda.

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We won't argue with those who prefer to call it the Manufacturing Lie rather than the Manufacturing Myth.  However, we prefer the alliteration.

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WHAT IS THE MANUFACTURING MYTH?  

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Before the advent of robots, the mantra was that manufacturing jobs were being lost to automation.  Before that, manufacturing jobs were evaporating due to the assembly line (specialization of work - think Henry Ford).  Before that, manufacturing jobs were being lost to uniformity of materials (think Colt).

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You get the picture.  As manufacturing has evolved to remove non-value added costs, at each turn so-called "futurists" have predicted the end of jobs like the End of Days.  At each turn those futurists have been dismally wrong (think Malthus).

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They were wrong because increased productivity (lower cost per unit produced) resulted in lower prices to the customer resulting in increased demand that drove a net increase in manufacturing jobs.  The Luddites were also wrong because machinery (including robots) doesn't spontaneously appear - thereby replacing employees.  Machinery including robots must be manufactured - a process requiring employees occupying jobs that didn't exist prior to the automation/mechanization.

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Yet, this Manufacturing Myth of the evaporation of manufacturing jobs (due to robotics) is being perpetuated by those working their own agenda.

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BUSTING THE MANUFACTURING MYTH

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One can rationalize anything.  The less one knows, the greater the need to rationalize.  It is popular to rationalize that manufacturing jobs are going away, anyway.  The production floor employee is being replaced by robots and those with great vision have seen the future and it is filled with robots and devoid of workers.

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These are the same seers who saw COBOL programming as the future a few decades ago.  Their ancestors predicted the end of jobs as manufacturing evolved from one man / one product to specialization of roles and responsibilities, and from hand operations to automation.  Yet as manufacturing evolved, relative affordability increased, demand increased and total manufacturing employment increased.  The seers at each step of this process have had the clarity of vision of a stone.

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Certainly, that vogue vision of the future – the vision filled with robots – then allows those who have failed to protect manufacturing jobs in their communities to justify their failings.  After all, they haven’t failed.  The jobs were going to go away, anyway.

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But what are the facts today?  Have the seers finally gotten it right?  According to the World Bank, manufacturing jobs worldwide have INCREASED 11% since 2000.  That experience, however, is not universal, as the following graph of World Bank and USDOL data shows: